Bounce back of one day and everything changes....and why not? People do get lots of money even if they are right with intraday trend of the stock as stocks spurts "up" by 10~15% in a single day. Such activities are always observed when some one wants retailer's attraction. I am glad to say even in such worst times both our stocks have done fairly well and credit goes all to the market. Just when everyone got happy today, with SENSEX ending three days of loosing streak...RBI announced REPO Rate hike(that too at most unexpected times) but was ANTICIPATION there in market when we were witnessing 30 points discount in FUTURE? And I assume "YES"
So what happens NEXT?
PART 1: Well BLOODBATH in indices.... margin calls getting triggered once again.... and RETAILERS loosing money..... "NATURALLY INDIA IS STILL GROWING AS IT WILL COLLECT HUGE MONEY IN FORM OFF ALL TAXES. "
PART 2: Discount turning into premium from next week.... Smart Investor accumulates all they can and once again spurt 4900..... 5000..... 5200 ..... once again retailer feeling left out and history repeats.
Conclusion: HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF >>>>> POOR BECOMES POORER >>>>>
It happened in 1992, It happened in 2000 Its happening in 2008 and It will happen in 2016.
However memories are short lived. Perfect example RPL and RPOWER.
Lets have a look at SENSEX's Monthly chart:
To get an un-biassed view, I have simply removed all index levels for time being. What I observe is that if on MONTHLY bases SENSEX closes below its 20 Months SMA which was not broken Right from June 2003 on closing bases now JUNE 2008 it could all end up at support lines that is shown or even below (NO NEED TO PANIC...remeber survival of the fittest). . . . And where does it takes us? ?
It may be well around 12500~13000 range during the year (NOT THIS MONTH). But it can be even lower then those levels. Dont worry we still have MONTH end to decide.
But as a precaution (We do carry UMBRELLA (Stop Loss) in RAINY (Volatile/ Indecisive) season...failing to do this we may either get wet(poor) & then ill(poorer) or if lucky we may not bother)
Now lets pin point few things what "I" would do if such things happen during this "year" to protect my self:
1) I will try not to enter F & O as I may just end up paying margin + brokerage + tax.
2) If I am invested at this levels and stock is trading at 40% lower to my BUY price I will try to EXIT either on UP MOVE or 10% lower from current price. I will close it and invest same amount in only INDEX fund.
3) Define my stop loss on all stocks before entering the STOCK.
4) Keep Stop Loss on all stocks I may start investing be it closing bases or intra day.
5) Since stock specific volatility kills all my "PRICE STOP LOSS" I may keep "STOP LOSS ON TIME FRAME".
Let me also have look at portfolio building, as prevailing conditions are best time to build your long term portfolios. In this case I will not buy BHEL / Reliance / L & T not even Infosys I will be very happy to place my bet on few known stocks but retailers never enter when they crack,
1) MTNL (95/-..... EXPECTING 380/-)
2) CIPLA (210/-..... EXPECTING 870/-)
3) SESA GOA (3700/-..... EXPECTING 14800/-)
4) THERMAX (400/-..... EXPECTING 1600/-)
5) GPIL (193/-..... EXPECTING 772/-)
6) Chambal Fert (79.50/-..... EXPECTING 320/-)
7) EKC (314.70/-..... EXPECTING 1258/-)
8) KCP (316.95/-..... EXPECTING 1264/-)
9) MUNDRA (609/-..... EXPECTING 2436/-)
10)Lincoln Pharma (6.50/-..... EXPECTING 26/-)
11)Index FUND in two installments first one tomorrow around 4400.
Whenever I will have money I will enter this stock and will never sell these stocks for next 6 years or till they won't give me 300% returns....and yes thats what my aim should be.... nothing less nothing more. If I buy 1 share of each company my total investment will be around 6000/- without including the gains in index fund.
After all its survival of fittest!!
.......HAPPY Investing.
Before Buying / Selling on any information provided on the blog or financial group kindly Read Disclaimer carefully.
No comments:
Post a Comment