In our article dated 11th June,2008 we had clearly mentioned SENSEX testing 12500~13000 levels this year....and it did touched those levels and bounced back... however pain still remains. Keep Visiting.
Regards,
Technical Analyst.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Monday, June 30, 2008
Monday, June 16, 2008
Mahindra and Mahindra (M & M)
Mahindra & Mahindra (Rs.569.10/-):
With sky rocketing CRUDE prices and Higher Interest Rate it is unlikely for AUTO sector to move higher in near term. In this sector M&M trading at Rs.569.10/- looks extremly weak. Those having exposure to this stock can look at ways to EXIT this stock on move towards Rs.600/-. We recommend "SELL" rating on the stock with target below Rs.500/- in next two-three months. In fact most of the stocks in AUTO sector can correct significantly. Attaching BSE Auto sector chart for your reference.
Previous Reco:
1) TISCO Reco at Rs.838/- (07th May,2008) touched high of Rs.925/-(21st May,2008) C.M.P.: Rs.903/- .. Traders are advised to use UP MOVE & BOOK PROFITS. GAIN on higher side: 10% or Rs.87/- TIME TOOK FOR 10% Return: 9 Trading session!!
2) STERLITE TECH (05th May, 2008) BUY ON CLOSE ABOVE Rs.245/- NOT Triggered .. Keep On Radar.
3) SENSEX Outlook : As expected. Fresh Review to be taken this week.
4) LUPIN ltd Reco at Rs.672.10/- (28th May,2008) touched high of Rs.741.90/-(13th June,2008) C.M.P.: Rs.725/- .. Target Acheived. TIME TOOK FOR 10.26% Return: 13 Trading session!!
Before Buying / Selling on any information provided on the blog or financial group kindly Read Disclaimer carefully.
~~Lupin Target Achieved~~
Previous Reco:
1) TISCO Reco at Rs.838/- (07th May,2008) touched high of Rs.925/-(21st May,2008) C.M.P.: Rs.903/- .. Traders are advised to use UP MOVE & BOOK PROFITS. GAIN on higher side: 10% or Rs.87/- TIME TOOK FOR 10% Return: 9 Trading session!!
2) STERLITE TECH (05th May, 2008) BUY ON CLOSE ABOVE Rs.245/- NOT Triggered .. Keep On Radar.
3) SENSEX Outlook : As expected. Fresh Review to be taken this week.
4) LUPIN ltd Reco at Rs.672.10/- (28th May,2008) touched high of Rs.741.90/-(13th June,2008) C.M.P.: Rs.725/- .. Target Acheived. TIME TOOK FOR 10.26% Return: 13 Trading session!!
Before Buying / Selling on any information provided on the blog or financial group kindly Read Disclaimer carefully.
1) TISCO Reco at Rs.838/- (07th May,2008) touched high of Rs.925/-(21st May,2008) C.M.P.: Rs.903/- .. Traders are advised to use UP MOVE & BOOK PROFITS. GAIN on higher side: 10% or Rs.87/- TIME TOOK FOR 10% Return: 9 Trading session!!
2) STERLITE TECH (05th May, 2008) BUY ON CLOSE ABOVE Rs.245/- NOT Triggered .. Keep On Radar.
3) SENSEX Outlook : As expected. Fresh Review to be taken this week.
4) LUPIN ltd Reco at Rs.672.10/- (28th May,2008) touched high of Rs.741.90/-(13th June,2008) C.M.P.: Rs.725/- .. Target Acheived. TIME TOOK FOR 10.26% Return: 13 Trading session!!
Before Buying / Selling on any information provided on the blog or financial group kindly Read Disclaimer carefully.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
~Markets Testing ~~~ SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST~
Interesting Times!!
Bounce back of one day and everything changes....and why not? People do get lots of money even if they are right with intraday trend of the stock as stocks spurts "up" by 10~15% in a single day. Such activities are always observed when some one wants retailer's attraction. I am glad to say even in such worst times both our stocks have done fairly well and credit goes all to the market. Just when everyone got happy today, with SENSEX ending three days of loosing streak...RBI announced REPO Rate hike(that too at most unexpected times) but was ANTICIPATION there in market when we were witnessing 30 points discount in FUTURE? And I assume "YES"
So what happens NEXT?
PART 1: Well BLOODBATH in indices.... margin calls getting triggered once again.... and RETAILERS loosing money..... "NATURALLY INDIA IS STILL GROWING AS IT WILL COLLECT HUGE MONEY IN FORM OFF ALL TAXES. "
PART 2: Discount turning into premium from next week.... Smart Investor accumulates all they can and once again spurt 4900..... 5000..... 5200 ..... once again retailer feeling left out and history repeats.
Conclusion: HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF >>>>> POOR BECOMES POORER >>>>>
It happened in 1992, It happened in 2000 Its happening in 2008 and It will happen in 2016.
However memories are short lived. Perfect example RPL and RPOWER.
Lets have a look at SENSEX's Monthly chart:
To get an un-biassed view, I have simply removed all index levels for time being. What I observe is that if on MONTHLY bases SENSEX closes below its 20 Months SMA which was not broken Right from June 2003 on closing bases now JUNE 2008 it could all end up at support lines that is shown or even below (NO NEED TO PANIC...remeber survival of the fittest). . . . And where does it takes us? ?
It may be well around 12500~13000 range during the year (NOT THIS MONTH). But it can be even lower then those levels. Dont worry we still have MONTH end to decide.
But as a precaution (We do carry UMBRELLA (Stop Loss) in RAINY (Volatile/ Indecisive) season...failing to do this we may either get wet(poor) & then ill(poorer) or if lucky we may not bother)
Now lets pin point few things what "I" would do if such things happen during this "year" to protect my self:
1) I will try not to enter F & O as I may just end up paying margin + brokerage + tax.
2) If I am invested at this levels and stock is trading at 40% lower to my BUY price I will try to EXIT either on UP MOVE or 10% lower from current price. I will close it and invest same amount in only INDEX fund.
3) Define my stop loss on all stocks before entering the STOCK.
4) Keep Stop Loss on all stocks I may start investing be it closing bases or intra day.
5) Since stock specific volatility kills all my "PRICE STOP LOSS" I may keep "STOP LOSS ON TIME FRAME".
Let me also have look at portfolio building, as prevailing conditions are best time to build your long term portfolios. In this case I will not buy BHEL / Reliance / L & T not even Infosys I will be very happy to place my bet on few known stocks but retailers never enter when they crack,
1) MTNL (95/-..... EXPECTING 380/-)
2) CIPLA (210/-..... EXPECTING 870/-)
3) SESA GOA (3700/-..... EXPECTING 14800/-)
4) THERMAX (400/-..... EXPECTING 1600/-)
5) GPIL (193/-..... EXPECTING 772/-)
6) Chambal Fert (79.50/-..... EXPECTING 320/-)
7) EKC (314.70/-..... EXPECTING 1258/-)
8) KCP (316.95/-..... EXPECTING 1264/-)
9) MUNDRA (609/-..... EXPECTING 2436/-)
10)Lincoln Pharma (6.50/-..... EXPECTING 26/-)
11)Index FUND in two installments first one tomorrow around 4400.
Whenever I will have money I will enter this stock and will never sell these stocks for next 6 years or till they won't give me 300% returns....and yes thats what my aim should be.... nothing less nothing more. If I buy 1 share of each company my total investment will be around 6000/- without including the gains in index fund.
After all its survival of fittest!!
.......HAPPY Investing.
Before Buying / Selling on any information provided on the blog or financial group kindly Read Disclaimer carefully.
Bounce back of one day and everything changes....and why not? People do get lots of money even if they are right with intraday trend of the stock as stocks spurts "up" by 10~15% in a single day. Such activities are always observed when some one wants retailer's attraction. I am glad to say even in such worst times both our stocks have done fairly well and credit goes all to the market. Just when everyone got happy today, with SENSEX ending three days of loosing streak...RBI announced REPO Rate hike(that too at most unexpected times) but was ANTICIPATION there in market when we were witnessing 30 points discount in FUTURE? And I assume "YES"
So what happens NEXT?
PART 1: Well BLOODBATH in indices.... margin calls getting triggered once again.... and RETAILERS loosing money..... "NATURALLY INDIA IS STILL GROWING AS IT WILL COLLECT HUGE MONEY IN FORM OFF ALL TAXES. "
PART 2: Discount turning into premium from next week.... Smart Investor accumulates all they can and once again spurt 4900..... 5000..... 5200 ..... once again retailer feeling left out and history repeats.
Conclusion: HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF >>>>> POOR BECOMES POORER >>>>>
It happened in 1992, It happened in 2000 Its happening in 2008 and It will happen in 2016.
However memories are short lived. Perfect example RPL and RPOWER.
Lets have a look at SENSEX's Monthly chart:
To get an un-biassed view, I have simply removed all index levels for time being. What I observe is that if on MONTHLY bases SENSEX closes below its 20 Months SMA which was not broken Right from June 2003 on closing bases now JUNE 2008 it could all end up at support lines that is shown or even below (NO NEED TO PANIC...remeber survival of the fittest). . . . And where does it takes us? ?
It may be well around 12500~13000 range during the year (NOT THIS MONTH). But it can be even lower then those levels. Dont worry we still have MONTH end to decide.
But as a precaution (We do carry UMBRELLA (Stop Loss) in RAINY (Volatile/ Indecisive) season...failing to do this we may either get wet(poor) & then ill(poorer) or if lucky we may not bother)
Now lets pin point few things what "I" would do if such things happen during this "year" to protect my self:
1) I will try not to enter F & O as I may just end up paying margin + brokerage + tax.
2) If I am invested at this levels and stock is trading at 40% lower to my BUY price I will try to EXIT either on UP MOVE or 10% lower from current price. I will close it and invest same amount in only INDEX fund.
3) Define my stop loss on all stocks before entering the STOCK.
4) Keep Stop Loss on all stocks I may start investing be it closing bases or intra day.
5) Since stock specific volatility kills all my "PRICE STOP LOSS" I may keep "STOP LOSS ON TIME FRAME".
Let me also have look at portfolio building, as prevailing conditions are best time to build your long term portfolios. In this case I will not buy BHEL / Reliance / L & T not even Infosys I will be very happy to place my bet on few known stocks but retailers never enter when they crack,
1) MTNL (95/-..... EXPECTING 380/-)
2) CIPLA (210/-..... EXPECTING 870/-)
3) SESA GOA (3700/-..... EXPECTING 14800/-)
4) THERMAX (400/-..... EXPECTING 1600/-)
5) GPIL (193/-..... EXPECTING 772/-)
6) Chambal Fert (79.50/-..... EXPECTING 320/-)
7) EKC (314.70/-..... EXPECTING 1258/-)
8) KCP (316.95/-..... EXPECTING 1264/-)
9) MUNDRA (609/-..... EXPECTING 2436/-)
10)Lincoln Pharma (6.50/-..... EXPECTING 26/-)
11)Index FUND in two installments first one tomorrow around 4400.
Whenever I will have money I will enter this stock and will never sell these stocks for next 6 years or till they won't give me 300% returns....and yes thats what my aim should be.... nothing less nothing more. If I buy 1 share of each company my total investment will be around 6000/- without including the gains in index fund.
After all its survival of fittest!!
.......HAPPY Investing.
Before Buying / Selling on any information provided on the blog or financial group kindly Read Disclaimer carefully.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
LUPIN Ltd
LUPIN (Rs.672.10/-):
With market unlikely to stabilize going ahead we are likely to see MONEY shifting to "DEFENSIVE SECTORS" likes of FMCG and HEALTH CARE. For short term of 3-4 weeks we are keeping our focus on LUPIN Ltd which is trading in narrow range of Rs.640~670/- from past one week. MACD and RSI on weekly charts are suggestive of stock making a fresh UP MOVE in near term. Traders can take fresh exposure in this stock in range of Rs.660~670/- with Strict Stop Loss of Rs.640/- on closing bases for UPSIDE Target of Rs.735~750/-.
Previous Reco:
1) TISCO Reco at Rs.838/- (07th May,2008) touched high of Rs.925/-(21st May,2008) C.M.P.: Rs.903/- .. Traders are advised to use UP MOVE & BOOK PROFITS. GAIN on higher side: 10% or Rs.87/- TIME TOOK FOR 10% Return: 9 Trading session!!
2) STERLITE TECH (05th May, 2008) BUY ON CLOSE ABOVE Rs.245/- NOT Triggered .. Keep On Radar.
3) SENSEX Outlook : As expected. Fresh Review to be taken this week.
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